Outlook and Targets

Please read our caution about Forward-Looking Statements in the Conditions of Use when using this information.

Future Perspectives

(published on April 27, 2020 in the Quarterly Statement Q1 2020)

Corporate Outlook
The forecast published in February 2020 did not take into account the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and continues to reflect our targets.

We anticipate that, following the positive start to the year, COVID-19 will continue to impact our business over the course of 2020. It will not be possible to reliably assess the positive and negative effects until later in the year.

We have already identified the key factors that will have a major impact on the development of our business:

// Production and supply
   // Stability of entire supply chain
   // Inventory / safety stock
   // Logistics, also impact on costs

// Demand dynamics
   // Demand patterns, e.g. stockpiling
   // Impact on elective treatments
   // Biofuel demand and seasonal labor
   // Clinical trials and regulatory processes

// Financial markets
   // Debt market access / interest rates
   // Payment behavior of customers and solvency of suppliers
   // FX volatility

// Trends / opportunities
   // Cost management
   // Acceleration of digitalization
   // Role of science in society

Corporate Outlook
The following forecast is based on the current business development and our internal planning. It also proceeds from the assumption that our Animal Health business will transfer to the acquirer effective July 1, 2020, and that we will receive the purchase price on that date in cash and Elanco shares as agreed.

To enhance the comparability of operating performance, the forecasts are adjusted for currency effects1. A 1% appreciation (depreciation) of the euro against all other currencies would decrease (increase) sales on an annual basis by some €350 million and EBITDA before special items by about €100 million.

We adjusted our value flows as of January 1, 2020 (for further details see A 1.1.2 “Corporate Structure”), which has an impact on the divisions’ EBITDA before special items. If these value flows had already applied in 2019, this key indicator would have been as follows:

Pro-forma EBITDA Before Special Items After Value Flow Changes

in Mio. €Crop SciencePharmaceuticalsConsumer Health
EBITDA before special items24,7965,9751,090
Value flow changes(82)(114)51
Pro-forma EBITDA before special items after value flow changes4,7145,8611,141

1 Using the average monthly exchange rates from 2019 (see Annual Report 2019, table B 4/1)
2 For definition see Annual Report 2019, A 2.3 “Alternative Performance Measures Used by the Bayer Group.”

 

For 2020, we expect currency-adjusted sales from continuing operations to amount to around €44 billion to €45 billion. This corresponds to an increase of about 3% to 4% on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. We aim to increase the EBITDA margin before special items to around 28% on a currency-adjusted basis. Based on the aforementioned sales figure, this would correspond to EBITDA before special items of €12.3 billion to €12.6 billion on a currency-adjusted basis. We plan to raise core earnings per share to between €7.00 and €7.20 on a currencyadjusted basis.

Forecast for 2020

2019 figures2020 forecast
€ billionFx & p adj. Change (%)€ billion

Fx & p adj. Change (%)

Sales143.5+ 3.544 to 45+ 3 to 4
Crop Science19.8+ 1.4~+ 4

Pharmaceuticals

18.0+ 5.6+ 3 to 4

Consumer Health

5.5+ 2.6+ 2 to 3
Margin (%)Margin (%)
EBITDA before special items1 (pro forma)11.526.4~28
Crop Science4.8 (4.7)24.2 (23.8)~26

Pharmaceuticals

6.0 (5.9)33.3 (32.6)~33

Consumer Health

1.1 (1.1)20.0 (20.9)22 to 23
Financial result (core)2(1.6)~( 1.5)
Tax rate (core)322.5%~23%
Free cash flow14.2~5
Net financial debt134.1~27
Special items in EBITDA(1.9)~( 0.9)
Core EPS16.407.00 to 7.20

Fx & p adj. = currency- and portfolio-adjusted
1 For definition see Annual Report 2019, A 2.3 “Alternative Performance Measures Used by the Bayer Group.”
2 Financial result before special items
3 (Income taxes + special items in income taxes + tax effects on adjustments) / (core EBIT + financial result + special items in financial result)

 

We plan to take total special charges of about €0.9 billion (currency-adjusted) in 2020, of which we expect approximately €0.7 billion to be spent on restructuring.

Potential estimation risks regarding special charges in connection with litigations are referenced in A 3.2 Opportunity and Risk Report.

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