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The following forecasts for 2011 are based on the business performance described in this report, taking into account the potential risks and opportunities. The sales and earnings forecast for 2012 is given is given in chapter 11.4 of the Annual Report 2010.
Bayer Group
We confirm the full-year sales and earnings forecast as raised in April.
For 2011 we continue to target a currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales increase of between 5% and 7%. This corresponds to Group sales of between €36 billion and €37 billion. This guidance is based on the exchange rates prevailing at the end of the third quarter of 2011.
We still plan to increase EBITDA before special items to more than €7.5 billion. As before, core earnings per share (calculated as explained in Chapter 7) are expected to improve by about 15%. We continue to plan special charges of about €0.5 billion in EBITDA for ongoing restructuring programs.
HealthCare
In 2011 HealthCare plans to increase sales by a low-single-digit percentage (previously: low- to mid-single-digit percentage) after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. We now expect EBITDA before special items to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage to at least €4.6 billion (previously: a small improvement), mainly in light of the savings from the efficiency programs.
In the Pharmaceuticals segment, we continue to believe that sales will not yet resume growing with the market in 2011. We expect virtually unchanged or only slightly higher sales (previously: low- to mid-single- digit percentage increase) after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. Particularly in view of our structural measures, we expect to increase EBITDA before special items by about 5%, improving the EBITDA margin before special items to about 30% (previously: raise the EBITDA margin before special items).
In the Consumer Health segment, we continue to anticipate above-market growth in sales after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. As before, we expect sales and EBITDA before special items to increase by mid-single-digit percentages.
CropScience
The CropScience business has continued to trend positively. As previously communicated, we aim to improve sales by a high-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis in 2011. In light of the good business performance so far, we plan to expand EBITDA before special items by more than (previously: about) 20% compared to the weak prior year.
MaterialScience
At MaterialScience we anticipate higher fourth-quarter sales but lower EBITDA before special items than in the same period of 2010 in view of continued increases in raw material and energy costs. As a result, we expect to raise full-year sales by a high-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis, posting slightly lower EBITDA before special items in the region of €1.3 billion (previously: grow EBITDA before special items at a higher rate than sales).
The following forecasts for 2011 are based on the business performance described in this report, taking into account the potential risks and opportunities. The sales and earnings forecast for 2012 is given is given in chapter 11.4 of the Annual Report 2010.
Bayer Group
We confirm the full-year sales and earnings forecast that we raised in April.
For 2011 we continue to target a currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales increase of between 5% and 7%. This corresponds to Group sales of between €36 billion and €37 billion. This guidance is based on the exchange rates prevailing at the end of the second quarter of 2011.
We still plan to increase EBITDA before special items to more than €7.5 billion. As before, core earnings per share (calculated as explained in Chapter 7) are expected to improve by about 15%. We anticipate that the special charges included in EBITDA for ongoing restructuring programs will remain unchanged at €0.5 billion.
HealthCare
We confirm our outlook for 2011.
In 2011 HealthCare still plans to increase sales by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects and to achieve a small improvement in EBITDA before special items.
In the Pharmaceuticals segment, we continue to believe that sales will not yet resume growing with the market in 2011. We still plan to increase sales by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects and to raise the EBITDA margin before special items.
In the Consumer Health segment, we continue to anticipate above-market growth in sales after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. As before, we expect sales and EBITDA before special items to increase by mid-single-digit percentages.
CropScience
The CropScience business continues to trend positively. As previously communicated, we aim to improve sales by a high-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis in 2011. We plan to expand EBITDA before special items by about 20% compared to the weak prior year – or more if the season progresses well in the second half of 2011.
MaterialScience
At MaterialScience we still expect to raise sales by a high-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. It remains our aim to grow EBITDA before special items at a higher rate than sales. However, we consider this objective to be increasingly ambitious.
We anticipate that sales and EBITDA before special items in the third quarter of 2011 will be in line with the prior-year level.
The following forecasts for 2011 are based on the business performance described in this report, taking into account the potential risks and opportunities. The sales and earnings forecast for 2012 is given is given in chapter 11.4 of the Annual Report 2010.
Bayer Group
Following our successful start to 2011, we are raising our sales and earnings forecast for the full year, mainly in light of the good start to the season at CropScience. We confirm the outlook for HealthCare. We are adjusting our sales forecast for MaterialScience, as we expect to be able to pass along the increases in raw material prices to our customers through higher selling prices.
For the full year 2011, we are now targeting a currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales increase for the Bayer Group of between 5% and 7% (previously: between 4% and 6%). This corresponds to Group sales of between €36 billion and €37 billion (previously: between €35 billion and €36 billion). This guidance is based on the exchange rates prevailing at the end of the first quarter of 2011.
We aim to increase EBITDA before special items to more than €7.5 billion (previously: toward €7.5 billion). Core earnings per share (calculated as explained in chapter 7) are expected to improve by about 15% (previously: about 10%). We continue to anticipate special charges in the region of €0.5 billion for ongoing restructuring programs.
HealthCare
We confirm our outlook for 2011.
In 2011, HealthCare plans to increase sales by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects and to achieve a small improvement in EBITDA before special items.
In the Pharmaceuticals segment, we do not yet expect sales to resume growing with the market in 2011. We plan to increase sales by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects and to raise the EBITDA margin before special items.
In the Consumer Health segment, we anticipate above-market growth in sales after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. We expect sales and EBITDA before special items to increase by mid-single-digit percentages.
CropScience
Following the dynamic start to 2011, we are raising our guidance for CropScience. We now expect to improve sales in both segments on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis and to grow overall by a high-single-digit (previously: at least a mid-single-digit) percentage. We intend to further strengthen our market position in the Environmental Science, BioScience segment and to at least maintain our existing position in Crop Protection. We plan to expand EBITDA before special items by about 20% compared to the weak prior year (previously: at a higher rate than sales).
MaterialScience
The good business situation at MaterialScience in the first quarter of 2011 was in line with our expectations. We expect that the economy will continue to recover. We are adjusting our sales forecast for 2011, as we expect to be able to pass on the raw material cost increases to our customers by raising selling prices. We now plan to raise sales by a high-single-digit (previously: mid-single-digit) percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis and continue to expect that EBITDA before special items will increase at a higher rate than sales.
In the second quarter of 2011, we anticipate further growth in sales and an improvement in EBITDA before special items compared with the first quarter of the year.
Bayer Group
The Bayer Group is confident for 2011. Provided that the economy continues to improve, we expect to see growth in sales and EBITDA before special items in all subgroups. For the full year 2011, we are targeting a currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales increase of between 4% and 6%. Based on our currency assumptions – including a rate of US$1.40 (2010 average: US$1.32) to the euro – we therefore expect to report Group sales of between €35 billion and €36 billion.
We aim to increase EBITDA before special items toward €7.5 billion. Core earnings per share (calculated as explained in Annual Report 2010, Chapter 4.3) are expected to improve by about 10%. We anticipate taking special charges of about €0.5 billion for ongoing restructuring programs.
We are planning capital expenditures of €1.5 billion for property, plant and equipment and €0.3 billion for intangible assets. Depreciation and amortization are expected to total about €2.5 billion, including €1.3 billion in amortization of intangible assets. We expect our research and development expenditures to match the record level of 2010 (€3.1 billion).
We can confirm our targets for 2012. If the economic environment remains positive, we continue to expect Bayer Group sales to grow by approximately 5% – after adjusting for currency and portfolio changes – in 2012. We plan to achieve EBITDA before special items in 2012 of approximately €8 billion and core earnings per share of around €5.
HealthCare
In 2011 HealthCare plans to increase sales by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects and to achieve a small improvement in EBITDA before special items.
In the Pharmaceuticals segment, we do not yet expect sales to resume growing with the market in 2011. We plan to increase sales by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects and to raise the EBITDA margin before special items.
In the Consumer Health segment, we anticipate above-market growth in sales after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. We expect sales and EBITDA before special items to increase by mid-single-digit percentages.
In 2012 we aim to accelerate the pace of growth, especially in Pharmaceuticals, thanks to our new products and to improve EBITDA before special items in both HealthCare segments.
CropScience
Following a difficult year in 2010, we now anticipate more favorable market conditions for CropScience and are therefore optimistic for 2011. We expect to improve sales in both CropScience segments on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis and to grow by at least a mid-single-digit percentage overall. We intend to further reinforce our market positions in Environmental Science, BioScience, and we expect to at least maintain our existing position in Crop Protection. We plan to expand EBITDA before special items at a higher rate than sales.
In 2012 we again aim to grow sales at least with the market and further improve EBITDA before special items.
MaterialScience
We expect that the business environment for MaterialScience will continue to recover. Against this background we plan to raise sales in 2011 by a mid-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis, and to increase EBITDA before special items at a higher rate than sales.
We expect sales in the first quarter of 2011 to be roughly in line with the fourth quarter of 2010 on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. Despite higher raw material prices, we expect EBITDA before special items in the first quarter of 2011 to exceed the level of the fourth quarter of 2010.
Provided that the market environment remains favorable, we plan to further increase sales and EBITDA before special items in 2012.
Bayer AG
As the holding company for the Bayer Group, Bayer AG derives most of its income from its subsidiaries. Under profit and loss transfer agreements with the major operating subsidiaries in Germany, their earnings are transferred directly to Bayer AG. The positive expectations for the Group’s business development outlined above are also likely to be reflected in the earnings of Bayer AG. In addition, the net interest position should continue to improve in light of the reduction in financial debt. We therefore expect to maintain a level of after-tax income that allows the payment of an appropriate dividend.
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